Moisés Naím
Modern autocrats understand the importance of being perceived as democratic—at least initially. Nevertheless, as they perform the most extravagant contortions to project an image of democratic legitimacy, they are quick to use their power to undermine the rule of law. They do not openly declare their intention to kill democracy, but they erode it stealthily, day by day, week by week, dismantling what they pretend to protect. It is a coup d’état, but in slow motion.
A coup d’état is the illegal seizure of power by violent or anti- constitutional means. The classic coup is a political earthquake, with dramatic scenes of tanks roaming the streets or planes bombarding the presidential palace. Self-coups, on the other hand, are a variant in which democratically elected leaders use their position to dismantle the institutional order and perpetuate their power.
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Incumbency was once a powerful electoral advantage: A sitting leader could cement bonds with constituents and donors that translated into support at the ballot box. But last year, wielding power was evidently a drag on leaders’ popularity, for reasons apparently not rooted in the specifics of the politics of their countries. In 2024, incumbent parties and their candidates lost ground virtually everywhere, whether they were right-wing or left-wing, moderate or radical, competent or incompetent, rich or poor.Voters all over the world felt that their ruling parties weren’t delivering for them in 2024. How could they all be wrong? But if their governments span the gamut of policies and values, how could they all be right?The phenomenon seemingly coincided with the global rise of what I’ve elsewhere called the “three Ps”: populism, polarization, and post-truth. These trends offer a clue, but whether they are the cause or the effect of the turn on incumbents is not a simple question.
Something has happened either to voters’ expectations or to governments’ capacity to deliver on them, or both.
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Venezuela’s future will be largely shaped by US policymakers and lobbyists over the next year. Although Donald Trump’s administration has yet to formulate a unified position on the country, it will probably do so sooner rather than later, given the many important US interests at stake. These include Venezuela’s vast oil reserves and high prevalence of drug trafficking and organized crime; its government’s assault on democracy and human rights (which has resulted in heavy US sanctions); the historic exodus of millions of Venezuelans; and China’s growing influence in the region.
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