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Moisés Naím / Persuasion
What do Leninism, Maoism, Peronism, Gaullism, Castroism and Chavism have in common? They’re political movements that long outlasted their charismatic founders. Some, like Leninism, went global. Some, like Cuba’s Castroism, were mostly regional. Others, like Gaullism in France and Peronism in Argentina, are purely national.
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The global, decentralized, non-governmental, open and free internet that we all know is vanishing.
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The recent US election had its highest voter turnout in 120 years. More than 80 million people voted for Joe Biden and 74 million for Donald Trump, making them the most-voted-for politicians in the history of the country.
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This election confirmed that the United States is a typical 21st-century democracy. That is to say, a politically torn country.
Read MoreMoisés Naím / World Energy & Oil
COVID-19 has produced shocking changes in the valuation of companies. But greater change looms in the form of climate change, which well may make COVID-19 seem like a mere harbinger of the events that follow it.
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How will the world look once the COVID-19 pandemic is contained? This question is as urgent and important as it is difficult to answer. Every day, we are surprised by news of important and unprecedented developments in politics, the economy, society, culture, business, science and more. Many of these changes were unimaginable even a few months ago. Yet, while it is impossible to reliably project what the world will look like in a decade or two, we can probe the present to find changes that are harbingers of things to come.
Read MoreMoisés Naím / El País
In 1986 Hollywood released the comedy The Three Amigos. It’s the story of three traveling comedians (Steve Martin, Chevy Chase and Martin Short) who, dressed as Mexican cowboys, arrive in the town of Santo Poco to put on a show. Instead, they find a Mexican town besieged by a gang of bearded ruffians on horseback commanded by “El Guapo.” Naturally, the three friends (with the help of the beautiful and long-suffering Carmen) manage to free Santo Poco from El Guapo and his henchmen. The script for The Three Amigos indulges every cliché and stereotype that Americans have of Mexicans. In fact, El Guapo and his gang fit perfectly with Donald Trump’s description of Mexican immigrants: murderers, rapists, bad hombres. And, let’s not forget, animals.
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Covid-19 kills not just people, it also kills ideas. And when it doesn’t kill them, it discredits them. For example, received ideas about office work, hospitals, and universities will not be the same when the dust settles from the pandemic. Nor will some of the more universal ideas about economics and politics. Here are four cases in point:
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What do cars in a parking lot have to do with online searches for terms like “diarrhea” and “cough”? And what do these data points tell us about the pandemic that is raging across the globe? As it turns out, a great deal.
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The Covid-19 pandemic is clearly the most important threat affecting the world: it can make everything else feel minor by comparison. Yet important things are happening that may soon affect us all.
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“The world has changed forever!”
“A new international order will emerge from this catastrophe.”
These were common refrains after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, but also following just about every security emergency and international economic downturn that has routinely shaken the world. An analysis of the major international crises since the 1980s reveals several recurring factors. The Covid-19 pandemic is different and far more menacing than the crises that preceded it. Still we are now seeing some of the common factors present in past crises. Here are five worth noting.
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To: President Donald J. Trump
From: XXXX
Re: Election strategy
It is a great honor, Mr President, to be called on for advice on how to guarantee your richly deserved reelection. I share your disappointment with your current advisers, who have failed to turn your stellar leadership into an overwhelming electoral advantage. In fact, I feel that the only useful adviser you have is your brilliant son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
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Henry Kissinger thinks the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. “While the assault on human health will – hopefully – be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations.” He warns that “the historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.”
Read MoreMoisés Naím / El País
“It took the world three months to reach 100,000 confirmed cases of infection. The next 100,000 happened in just 12 days. The third took four days. The fourth, just one and a half.” Those were the words of Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, in his recent warning to a group of world leaders.
Read MoreMoisés Naím / World Energy & Oil
Last January, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan met in Washington, D.C. for urgent discussions about a water project, the Renaissance Dam. While the dam would clearly benefit Ethiopia, it would also add to the growing water stresses that affect millions of Egyptians. The risks of a major violent confrontation over this issue seemed imminent until the negotiators reached an eleventh-hour agreement. While tensions have temporarily abated, the situation is unstable, as current trends point to continuous and increasingly acute water crises in the region. These crises will inevitably result in deeper tensions and more frequent confrontations.
Read MoreMoisés Naím / El País
Earthquakes destroy much, but they also reveal valuable information about the deepest layers of the earth. Similarly, pandemics cause immense pain and suffering but also teach us a great deal. And not just about biology, epidemiology and medicine. They also reveal who we are, as individuals and as a society. For example, are we, as people, more altruistic or selfish? Is it better to have a country that is open to the world or one that has closed borders? Do we trust our politicians or the experts? And what should guide our behavior: emotions or data?
Read MoreMoisés Naím / El País
Recently, US televangelist Jim Bakker interviewed Sherrill Sellman, a “naturopathic doctor,” who explained the extraordinary properties of the “Silver Solution,” a product that Bakker sells on his show’s website.
Read MoreMoisés Naím / El País
This is the equation that captures a big chunk of the forces driving the decline of liberal democracy: populism plus polarization plus post-truth lead to continuism. And what is continuism? It’s one of those words from Spanish that English lacks – but increasingly needs. Continuismo is what happens when leaders manipulate institutions, the law and even the constitution in order to grab and retain power.
Read MoreMoisés Naím / El País
In countries where snow abounds, words abound to describe it. And the same goes for corruption. Where there’s a lot of corruption, it goes by many names.
In the Sami language, spoken in Norway, Sweden and Finland, there are more than 300 words for snow. In Latin America, and in countries such as Italy, Greece, Nigeria and India, there are hundreds of words for corruption. Coima, mordida, moches, ñeme-ñeme, guiso, mermelada and cohecho are some of the words for corruption used in Spanish-speaking countries. But just as interesting as the concepts we have too many words for, are those we have none for.
Read MoreMoisés Naím and Francisco Toro / Foreign Affairs
In the last three years, tragic scenes of poverty and mayhem have dominated the coverage of Venezuela, a nation that used to be one of the wealthiest and most democratic countries in South America. Venezuela has become both a byword for failure and, curiously, something of an ideological hot potato, a rhetorical device dropped into political conversations around the world.
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