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Filtering by Category: World Energy & Oil
Moisés Naím / World Energy & Oil
To counter this phenomenon, Qatar has experimented with a solution that combines a traditional monarchy, a large working class made up of foreigners and a stubbornly independent democracy. It remains to be seen whether this recipe will hold up to the energy transition.
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The development of the African Continent is a slow process driven by thousands of entrepreneurs and the millions of small decisions they make day by day to solve specific problems.
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Despite the commitments made since the Earth Summit held in Rio in 1992, Emissions have increased by 60 percent. While climate stability is the ultimate collective good, ensuring the adequate availability of this public good worldwide is a perverse problem.
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Every four years, the talking heads on TV ritually remind us that the modern Olympics were launched in 1896 with the lofty goal of furthering world peace. There’s little evidence that they do that, or even that they lessen diplomatic tensions between countries in conflict. As the back-to-back boycotts by the United States and the Soviet Union showed in the 1980s, the Olympics can even do the opposite, becoming more grist to the mill of diplomatic tension.
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Donald J. Trump wanted to make the United States an “energy superpower.” His vision was to lead the country not just towards energy self-sufficiency but also towards “global energy dominance.” This required the vigorous promotion of oil, natural gas and coal. Trump’s energy secretary, Rick Perry, said “An energy dominant America will export to markets around the world, increasing our global leadership and influence.” The implementation of this vision led to the opening of federal lands and waters to oil and gas drilling, including pristine areas like the Arctic National Wildlife refuge. President Trump never hid his conviction that carbon dioxide emissions were not a primary contributor to climate change.
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COVID-19 has produced shocking changes in the valuation of companies. But greater change looms in the form of climate change, which well may make COVID-19 seem like a mere harbinger of the events that follow it.
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How will the world look once the COVID-19 pandemic is contained? This question is as urgent and important as it is difficult to answer. Every day, we are surprised by news of important and unprecedented developments in politics, the economy, society, culture, business, science and more. Many of these changes were unimaginable even a few months ago. Yet, while it is impossible to reliably project what the world will look like in a decade or two, we can probe the present to find changes that are harbingers of things to come.
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Last January, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan met in Washington, D.C. for urgent discussions about a water project, the Renaissance Dam. While the dam would clearly benefit Ethiopia, it would also add to the growing water stresses that affect millions of Egyptians. The risks of a major violent confrontation over this issue seemed imminent until the negotiators reached an eleventh-hour agreement. While tensions have temporarily abated, the situation is unstable, as current trends point to continuous and increasingly acute water crises in the region. These crises will inevitably result in deeper tensions and more frequent confrontations.
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The numbers are in. Humanity needs to cut global greenhouse emissions by 7.6 percent every year for the next decade to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius target agreed upon in the 2015 Paris accord. This is just one of the alarms sounded by the 2019 Environment Emissions Gap Report recently released by the United Nations. Each year the report assesses the difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” with regards to greenhouse emissions. The report also notes that, in the past decade, global emissions of greenhouse gases have increased 1.5 percent each year on average and confirms that the world has warmed more than 1 degree Celsius from what it was in pre-industrial times.
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In recent years, the attention of energy companies, governments, investors and the media has focused on the enormous upheaval caused by new technologies which have made the exploitation of shale gas and shale oil technically and economically feasible, and these innovations have upended energy markets and traditional geopolitical structures. In particular, the United States has become not only self-sufficient in energy terms but also one of the main hydrocarbon exporters. It is not exaggeration to call the changes in the oil and gas industry revolutionary. However, this change has diverted attention from another revolution changing the world, the electrical revolution.
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Thucydides is booming. In recent years, the ideas of this Athenian general and historian who lived around 450 BC have attracted renewed attention. He wrote on a variety of subjects, but the current interest in his work was sparked by his chronicle of the 30-year war between Sparta and Athens. Specifically, what has attracted the attention of contemporary politicians, generals and historians is his conclusion that “What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta.” The prediction that worries modern-day analysts is that the ascent of a rival capable of challenging the dominance of the established power inevitably leads to war. Of course, what they have in mind is China’s ascent and America’s reactions to it. Will the current frictions between the two giant nations continue to escalate and lead to a confrontation that will change the planet or will they find a way to coexist in a tense and fractious but ultimately peaceful sharing of global power?
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The Gulf petrostates, led by Riyadh, have outlined strategies to adapt to a world in which their current economic and political structures are no longer sustainable. Succeeding in this venture will require overcoming significant obstacles.
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Efforts to put America First tend to spark episodes of economic isolationism and hamper trade cooperation. U.S. Energy Dominance works better as a slogan than a policy.
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Awareness of the need to combat pollution created by waste is slow-spreading and companies still lack the incentives to replace their use-and-discard models in favor of use-recycle-and-reuse ones. Large-scale, adequately incentivized and state-supported attempts to drastically alter the way we currently create and dispose of waste are still few and far between.
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Most of energy industry disruption has come from new technologies. This will continue. But a source of turmoil far more potent looms large.
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The plan to upgrade China’s energy mix announced by President Xi Jinping during the 19th National Congress of the CCP, which is expected to contribute to reducing CO2 emissions, faces five political and economic challenges that could hinder its implementation.
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Latin America is an energy giant hobbled by its politics. Its energy reality falls far short of its immense possibilities. This gap has many reasons—punitive regulations, lack of innovation, inadequate infrastructure, weak property rights, corruption and more. Latin America’s geology is great for energy production but its prevailing ideology is far less conducive to the adoption of successful energy policies. Indeed, politics underlies many of the obstacles that limit Latin America’s energy performance. From longstanding resource nationalism to the populism common throughout the region, politics has always shaped the way the Latin American nations explore, produce, consume and, in some cases, export energy.
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The organization is no longer what it was—its power to influence stock prices continues to decline. Five key factors will push back against its efforts to stabilize oil prices
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We know the story: Mother Nature is sending increasingly loud and frequent signals that something new and dangerous is afoot. Regularly, climate scientists release incontrovertible data showing that climate is changing and offer robust explanations of why this is happening. We also know the other part of this story: Not enough is being done by peoples and governments to alter a trajectory that is guaranteed to force drastic changes in the human condition.
Read MoreMoisés Naím /World Energy & Oil
Attention to technological disruption has distracted observers from the fact that politics continues to be the most disruptive force of all in the oil and gas markets.
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