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Economists agree that the devastating economic aftermath of the pandemic calls for a substantial increase in government spending. An injection of public spending will help individuals, families, businesses and other organizations that suddenly lost their incomes. Even the most conservative economic institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks, as well as top economists, not only recommend increasing public spending, but doing it in a big way. “Act big” was US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s message to her fellow ministers from the world’s biggest economies. Furthermore, leading experts such as Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate in economics, say they are not concerned about the enormous fiscal deficit, the booming debt, the heightened risks of financial instability, or the inflation that could result from an excess in public spending and the printing of money. This is in stark contrast to the financial crisis of 2008, when experts called for spending cuts, “deleveraging” and restraint. Austerity was their mantra. Now, it’s to go big, spend what you have and what you don’t have too – deficits and debt don’t matter.
“America is back,” declared an excited Joe Biden. He was speaking to a group of mostly European political leaders, via video link, at the Munich Security Conference. The new president emphasized that “the transatlantic alliance is back.” Naturally, the message was well received. Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson all applauded America’s new stance. In his remarks, Biden also renewed America’s commitment to NATO’s Article V, which obliges the military alliance’s member nations to respond collectively to an attack against any one of its members. During Donald Trump’s presidency, he repeatedly refrained from publicly acknowledging that, as a member of NATO, his country would accept that obligation. Naturally, Trump’s reluctance produced a great deal of anxiety in the capitals of Europe... and glee from the Kremlin.
Despite being home to the Galapagos Islands as well as 32 majestic volcanoes – several of them active – and being the world’s largest producer of bananas, Ecuador rarely attracts international media attention. It is not Brazil, Mexico, or Argentina, the giants of the region. Its political instability is not as problematic as that of neighboring Peru, nor has it been looted top to bottom like Venezuela. In short, it is a normal Latin American country: poor, unequal, unjust, corrupt, and full of decent and hard-working people. Its democracy is flawed but competitive, its institutions are weak, but they are there, and its economy – the eighth largest in the continent – depends on the export of oil, bananas, shrimp, and gold. And, of course, on the money that Ecuadorians abroad send back to their families.
Erasmus was a Dutch philosopher widely recognized as one of the leading humanists of the Renaissance. Erasmus is also the name for the European Union’s breathtakingly ambitious program to help millions of young people study outside their own country. America needs its own Erasmus.
January 6 was a very bad day for President Donald Trump and a very good day for American democracy. The dead and wounded will be remembered as a tragic outcome of the president’s violent rhetoric. But what happened that day – and I’m not just referring to the takeover of Congress by Trump’s supporters – could very well mark the beginning of an important period of renewal and strengthening of American democracy.
What do Leninism, Maoism, Peronism, Gaullism, Castroism and Chavism have in common? They’re political movements that long outlasted their charismatic founders. Some, like Leninism, went global. Some, like Cuba’s Castroism, were mostly regional. Others, like Gaullism in France and Peronism in Argentina, are purely national.
The recent US election had its highest voter turnout in 120 years. More than 80 million people voted for Joe Biden and 74 million for Donald Trump, making them the most-voted-for politicians in the history of the country.
COVID-19 has produced shocking changes in the valuation of companies. But greater change looms in the form of climate change, which well may make COVID-19 seem like a mere harbinger of the events that follow it.
How will the world look once the COVID-19 pandemic is contained? This question is as urgent and important as it is difficult to answer. Every day, we are surprised by news of important and unprecedented developments in politics, the economy, society, culture, business, science and more. Many of these changes were unimaginable even a few months ago. Yet, while it is impossible to reliably project what the world will look like in a decade or two, we can probe the present to find changes that are harbingers of things to come.
In 1986 Hollywood released the comedy The Three Amigos. It’s the story of three traveling comedians (Steve Martin, Chevy Chase and Martin Short) who, dressed as Mexican cowboys, arrive in the town of Santo Poco to put on a show. Instead, they find a Mexican town besieged by a gang of bearded ruffians on horseback commanded by “El Guapo.” Naturally, the three friends (with the help of the beautiful and long-suffering Carmen) manage to free Santo Poco from El Guapo and his henchmen. The script for The Three Amigos indulges every cliché and stereotype that Americans have of Mexicans. In fact, El Guapo and his gang fit perfectly with Donald Trump’s description of Mexican immigrants: murderers, rapists, bad hombres. And, let’s not forget, animals.
Covid-19 kills not just people, it also kills ideas. And when it doesn’t kill them, it discredits them. For example, received ideas about office work, hospitals, and universities will not be the same when the dust settles from the pandemic. Nor will some of the more universal ideas about economics and politics. Here are four cases in point:
What do cars in a parking lot have to do with online searches for terms like “diarrhea” and “cough”? And what do these data points tell us about the pandemic that is raging across the globe? As it turns out, a great deal.
The Covid-19 pandemic is clearly the most important threat affecting the world: it can make everything else feel minor by comparison. Yet important things are happening that may soon affect us all.
“A new international order will emerge from this catastrophe.”
These were common refrains after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, but also following just about every security emergency and international economic downturn that has routinely shaken the world. An analysis of the major international crises since the 1980s reveals several recurring factors. The Covid-19 pandemic is different and far more menacing than the crises that preceded it. Still we are now seeing some of the common factors present in past crises. Here are five worth noting.
It is a great honor, Mr President, to be called on for advice on how to guarantee your richly deserved reelection. I share your disappointment with your current advisers, who have failed to turn your stellar leadership into an overwhelming electoral advantage. In fact, I feel that the only useful adviser you have is your brilliant son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
Henry Kissinger thinks the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. “While the assault on human health will – hopefully – be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations.” He warns that “the historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.”
“It took the world three months to reach 100,000 confirmed cases of infection. The next 100,000 happened in just 12 days. The third took four days. The fourth, just one and a half.” Those were the words of Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, in his recent warning to a group of world leaders.