Guns or butter?

May 15, 2024Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El Pais

Last year, global military spending surged by nearly 7%, marking the largest increase since 2008, according to researchers at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Collectively, governments expended over $2.4 trillion on military personnel, equipment and weaponry. That is 2.4 million times a million dollars.

Let’s talk about nuclear weapons

April 19, 2024Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El Pais

On the fateful morning of August 6, 1945, the United States dropped a bomb that obliterated the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, Nagasaki suffered the same fate. The Japanese Empire realized that without surrender, its territory would be devastated. Thus, 24 days after the bombing of Nagasaki, the Emperor signed the unconditional surrender of Japan.

Fat Leonard and Alex Saab’s interesting story

March 21, 2024Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El Pais

His name is Leonard Glenn Francis, but everyone called him Fat Leonard. His company, Glenn Defense Marine Asia, made him very wealthy. His business was supplying — food, fuel, etc. — to U.S. Navy ships in Asian ports. Fat Leonard became good friends with the American admirals and captains who went to his parties. He was a generous host, and everybody knew that his already large fortune continued to grow.

Something similar happened with Alex Saab. He is a key financial operator for Nicolás Maduro and his associates worldwide. Saab started with a small trucking company in Colombia but moved to Caracas and quickly gained the trust of influential players in the Bolivarian Revolution. Relying on his new friends, he began to launch increasingly ambitious business schemes.

Xi lost the plot

December 11, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El Pais

Ten years ago, we thought we understood how China worked. The Asian giant had left Mao Zedong's dictatorship behind and was becoming a hybrid entity, neither capitalist nor socialist but always pragmatic. Leadership was no longer exercised by one person but by a collegiate institution—the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. In that body, the country’s top seven leaders would hash out the policies of the state.

Which Milei Will Govern?

November 28, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

Argentina has chosen to live through interesting times. In Javier Milei, they elected a president as far from politics as usual as it is possible to imagine. Because Milei is many things: an orthodox libertarian economist, a born-for-TV right-wing provocateur with a larger than life ego, a dog-cloning enthusiast with a penchant for esoteric mysticism, and a power-oriented politician willing to build alliances with people he’s spent years berating. The trouble is, we’re not quite sure which one of them is going to end up governing Argentina.

What is climate “Sticker Shock”?

November 14, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

2.4 trillion dollars. With a “t”. A two, a four, and then eleven zeroes. That’s the astronomical figure needed to confront climate change. And not just once. That’s the amount that would have to be spent year after year just to avoid the worst impacts of the changes we’ve made to our atmosphere. No one actually knows how to raise such a sum or who will pay it. But we had better figure it out.

The Stealth Recession

October 31, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

Much has been said about the “democratic recession,” meaning democracy is retreating in many parts of the world. But there is another recession, less well-publicized, that goes hand in hand with the first and could be more damaging: the global rule of law recession.

A World Without Precedents

October 16, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

This is new. Nothing like this has ever happened before. Many of us shared these thoughts last week after first —and correctly— recoiling horror and indignation at the barbarity of Hamas.

Despite the countless tragedies that Israel has suffered in its 75-year history—ranging from full-scale wars to terrorist attacks—it has never experienced a military assault on this scale targeting its civilian population

Modi: from Prime Minister to King of Bharat

September 30, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

Once upon a time, a king was bathing in the river when a badly wounded deer came down to the water to birth. Overwhelmed with compassion, the king adopted its newborn fawn as his pet

Dictators without an exit

June 13, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

One of the critical debates of our time is how to deal with dictators. In dozens of countries there is a fierce clash between those who will only accept the unconditional defeat and the eventual prosecution of a dictator and his cronies and those who are willing to accept horrible concessions in order to establish a democracy.

A gold rush in space

May 31, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

While the world is preoccupied with climate change, war and artificial intelligence, another profoundly transformative phenomenon is in full swing: space exploration. And getting to where we are today is just part of a long and fascinating history. In 1957, the Soviet Union launched a rocket into space. It carried a polished 23-inch metal sphere that weighed 185 pounds and had four antennas. This first artificial satellite, Sputnik, sparked a fierce race between the United States and the Soviet Union to achieve technological dominance in space. A lot has changed since then.

This time it’s different

May 03, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

New scientific discoveries and technological innovations are often exalted as harbingers of sweeping change. However, few of these “breakthroughs,” live up to the hype. Instead, they are overtaken by other discoveries or technologies that go beyond what had initially been seen as a life-altering historic contribution.

Russia’s population shrinks and China’s ages

April 19, 2023Andrea Guerra

Moisés Naím / El País

Can a military superpower maintain its global dominance even if its population is shrinking? What about when its population is aging and will soon be dominated by the elderly? These are not hypothetical questions; they are happening right now. Russia is depopulating and China is aging rapidly. And these are not the only demographic woes that are weakening these two nuclear powers.